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We got off to a positive start for the 2022 NFL season, going 2-1 including a +118 money line whit with the Browns winning in walk-off field goal style over the Panthers. I'll continue to look for these +EV moneyline plays as the season rolls on, but finding value earlier in the season is much easier than as the year rolls on.
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty - please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
New England Patriots (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday 9/18, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 40.5
The Patriots had a bit of a stunner in Week 1, falling 20-7 to the Dolphins. The offense was beyond anemic, amassing just 271 yards of offense. Mac Jones turned the ball over twice and by the end of the game was experiencing some back spasms, so overall it was just a down day. The run game was serviceable, as Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson averaged 4.3 yards per carry as a duo, but with the overall lack of success on offense, the Pats were just plain flat.
Things won't get easier in Week 2 as they travel to Pittsburgh who is fresh off a five-takeaway game. While Jones is expected to play, it will be interesting to see how they attack after a week of game prep. New England was one of the slowest-paced teams in Week 1, averaging just over 30 seconds between offensive plays. I wouldn't be surprised to see this pace continue to try and kill any momentum the Steelers' defense tries to build.
The Steelers quite frankly didn't deserve to win against the Bengals in Week 1. If there was an offense that looked worse than the Patriots, it was the Steelers. Mitch Trubisky got little protection, and when he did, he made very bad decisions. Najee Harris (foot) reaggravated a training camp injury and is questionable for this one. If he doesn't play, it will put even more pressure on Trubisky to make plays, which is not what the Steelers want to gameplan for.
Pittsburgh's defense was very much back, after registering five takeaways from the Bengals. However, TJ Watt (pectoral) is out for a few weeks, which puts a damper on the pass rush. However, this defense is still dangerous enough that putting Mac Jones in pressure situations won't be hard to do.
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are notorious for getting off to slow starts in games. Last week, they kept their pace slow (30 seconds in between snaps). As previously mentioned the Pats were slow in Week 1, but especially slow in the first half (34 seconds in between snaps) and didn't cross their opponent's 40-yard line in the entire first half. While I don't think they'll struggle quite that bad again, I look for this first half to be slow and uneventful.
Pick: 1H Under 20 (-110, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (-1.5)
Sunday 9/18 1:00PM EST | O/U: 43.5
Baker Mayfield wasn't exactly the game changer Carolina was hoping for in Week 1, but he did enough to give the team a chance to win. After all, Christian McCaffrey is the be-all, end-all of this team, and even he was held in check by the Browns defense. As a unit, they put up 261 yards of offense and scored 17 of their 24 points in the fourth quarter. Realistically, this is the type of game we can expect out of Mayfield, but with CMC, it's just a matter of when, not if he goes nuts.
The Panthers' run unit was easily the worst in all of Week 1, after giving up 217 yards to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and Football Outsiders and ProFootballFocus agree, based on their ratings. Now they get Saquon Barkley who looked revitalized in his first game back.
The Giants are in a weird place in that they have a franchise player at running back and a new coach who has been heralded for his play-calling abilities. However, their quarterback is considered one of the worst in the league. Yet, they found a way to beat the Titans in Week 1. Daniel Jones is that culprit, and while his numbers look serviceable (17 for 21 with 188 yards and two touchdowns), the majority of that success was in the second half. Saquon Barkley rushed for 168 and a score and looks as good as new.
This defense is on the same level as the Browns after Week 1. However, their downfall was the passing game, allowing 288 yards and two touchdowns and sitting as the 31st worst pass defense by DVOA. Again, small sample. They held Derrick Henry to just 82 yards and no scores but got dissected by Ryan Tannehill. Could we see a similar outcome in Week 2, as the matchup seems eerily similar?
I think Barkley is going to run up, down, and around the Panthers on Sunday. I think Mayfield throws for over 300 yards against this weak Giants secondary. I picked up the total when it opened at 42.5 and it has since gone up to 43.5, but I see upside for both offenses this week, and I think the over is the play.
Pick: Over 42.5 (-110, Draftkings) Bet to win 1 Unit
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Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-1.5)
Sunday 9/18 1:00PM EST | O/U 48.5
All things considered, it was a great start to the year for the Commanders when they won 28-22 over the Jaguars in Week 1. New quarterback Carson Wentz showed promise with his receiving corps, tossing for over 300 yards with four touchdowns. Of course, two interceptions bring that down a bit, but overall the offense moved the ball and many players had an impact, including rookie receiver Jahan Dotson, who caught his first two career touchdowns.
Defensively, the Commanders are suspect. They're missing Chase Young, but in Week 1, they registered a 68 rating for pass rush by ProFootballFocus, so against a banged-up Lions offensive line, it's imperative that type of pass rush continues.
The Lions put up a heck of a fight against the Eagles last week. They lost 38-35 and outscored Philly 21-14 in the second half. Jared Goff did what the team needed him to do and that was spread the ball around and limit mistakes. He threw two touchdowns and one interception, but it was enough to allow the run game to succeed to the tune of 181 yards and three touchdowns between D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. Swift wound up on the injury report during the week but is expected to go Sunday.
The Lions' defense got absolutely gashed by the Eagles. Four different Philly players scored a rushing touchdown in Week 1, and while the Commanders will likely have a different game plan, this unit is not strong. Aiden Hutchinson is a stud and will generate pressure on Wentz, but outside of him, there's a lot to be desired. They come into this ranked 28th in DVOA, though obviously a small sample.
The Lions are without a doubt making positive strides, but I'm not there quite yet on buying in. I give Washington advantages at the quarterback, wide receiver, and on defense. With the spread at 1.5, it's essentially a toss-up, but I'm siding with the slight road underdog here and taking the Washington money line and hoping Wentz doesn't completely blow this one up.
Pick: Washington Commanders ML (+118) Bet 1 Unit
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