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It's always easier writing this article on the day after a solid return on our bets from the previous day. Yesterday I went 2-1 on spreads and 1-1 on totals, but a 4-1 mark on props put it over the top and made it a solid, profitable day and I hope that you were able to cash those bets, too! With the playoffs only a few weeks away, handicapping these games is going to get pretty challenging but I am going to do my best to give you some of my best plays every day. We may end up with more player props than totals and spreads on some nights when a lot of players are being rested and tonight might end up that way, too.
Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, March 28, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
Chicago Bulls (-5) @ New York Knicks (223 total)
It's a shaky slate of games today so I will start with my favorite bet and it just happens to be a game total which hasn't been my strong suit this season as my record indicates.
But my model lines up with some solid trends here on this one and I'm going to try to apply some additional logic to make this pick make sense.
The Knicks held off the Pistons yesterday to win 104-102 in a game that went a full 12-13 points under its total (depending on where you got it). Julius Randle returned for New York and they've now reeled off three wins in a row and have won five of their last seven.
Unfortunately for the Knicks, the Bulls are trending in the right direction, too, as they held off my Cavs this weekend for a big win. The biggest difference with the Bulls lately has been the return of Alex Caruso and Patrick Williams - two really important rotational players who are solid defensively.
Caruso is well-known as an elite defender and check this out. In 38 games without him this year, the Bulls have a defensive rating of 116.6 (which would be the worst in the NBA). In the 36 games that he's played, that rating drops to 110.4, which is a top-10 rating.
If we project the Bulls to be improved defensively, then this total is far too high and my model suggests it's over eight points too fat. That's also due to how good the Knicks have been on defense of late as they've allowed only 104 points per game to opponents over their last ten. I think Chicago probably wins, though I think the Knicks could cover. But my favorite bet here in the under. This is the fourth time these teams have met and two of those meetings have gone well under this total.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5) @ Portland Trail Blazers (221.5 total)
Throw the season series data out of the window because neither of these teams are playing guys right now who played in those games, let's start there.
I'm not sure if either team wants to win this game or not as both teams are fully engaged in tank mode right now, but someone has to win, right? And players are going to try to score points, too, are they not?
There are so many players out for both teams that I wouldn't even be able to list them all if I tried and frankly, it doesn't matter much anyway. I was considering going with the Thunder and laying 2.5 points but I don't even want to do that at this point.
Here's my angle - young players + meaningless game = summer league atmosphere where a lot of points will be scored. Sure, you could point out that the quality of offensive players here is bad, but I wouldn't point out that the defenses are bad and have been really bad down the stretch (Portland allowing the second-most points and OKC the fourth-most points in the league over their last ten games).
I'm rolling with the over here as 221 is a low total for a game that could end up being a glorified pick-up game.
Denver Nuggets (-3.5) @ Charlotte Hornets (233 total)
This is one game that I have a ton of interest in tonight for DFS. Not only is that total juicy, but the individual matchups are sexy, too, as we know big men smash the Hornets and guards can torch the Nuggets. That means pairing Nikola Jokic with someone like LaMelo Ball or Terry Rozier might be a good place to start your lineups.
But Dan, this isn't a DFS article, dude, get it together. Get back to the betting angles, please!
So this game matters quite a bit for the standings for both teams. The Nuggets are only 1.5 games ahead of Minnesota for the 6th seed and they want to keep it that way to avoid the play-in tourney. Meanwhile, the Hornets are likely going to be in the play-in barring a big run down the stretch and the collapse of two of the Bulls, Cavs, and Raptors. But after last night's win over the Nets, they moved into a tie for the 8th seed. The difference between the 8th and 9th seeds is substantial since you have to win two games to get in from the 9th or 10 seed and need only one win from the 7th or 8th seeds.
The problem for Charlotte here is that Denver is simply better and they are going to be well-rested while the Hornets just played a tough game last night. Playing on no rest this season, Charlotte is only 3-10 ATS and has the worst cover rate in the league. While they're playing better ball lately, I still think the Nuggets are a tier ahead of them and have the likely MVP on the roster.
The Hornets beat Denver earlier this year back in December, but I don't see it happening again. I wish they were favored by less, but I'm going to lay the 3.5 instead of taking their money line at -170 and hope they can pull away late.
The Pick: Nuggets -3.5 (-110)
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Nikola Jokic over 13.5 rebounds (+102 Fanduel SB) - I was waiting on this prop to move all day as it was sitting at 12.5 but with way too much juice. Now that it's moved, I want to jump on it. Jokic averages 13.5 boards a game and gets a big boost here against a poor Charlotte interior. He grabbed 21 against them in their only meeting earlier this season.
Darius Garland over 24.5 points (-114 FanDuel SB) - Garland continues to be the main offensive force for Cleveland and the Cavs badly need a win here. He's been playing huge minutes and it's hard to see him not getting there in a good matchup against Orlando tonight unless there is a blowout.
Drew Eubanks over 11.5 rebounds (-130 FanDuel SB) - more good odds on FD here as he's already over -140 on DK. With no Watford, it looks like Eubanks is slated for a bunch of minutes in an elite spot for boards against OKC, who gives up the most rebounds to opponents this season.
Tre Mann over 18.5 points (-116 FanDuel SB) - Mann should be the main "man" on offense for OKC in a game that I think gets fairly high-scoring. He's been a little all over the place in the scoring department, but we know he has the ability to get buckets and Portland is bleeding points everywhere.
Jakob Poeltl over 12.5 rebounds/assists (+106 FanDuel SB) - the easier bet here is over 9.5 on boards, but I'm looking to find some good odds on a few of these. Poeltl averages right around 12 AST/REB a game and this is a plus matchup against Houston, who has allowed the fourth-most assists and third-most rebounds to centers over the last two weeks.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
The Pick: Cavs/Hawks/Grizzlies/Spurs ML line parlay (+157 DraftKings Sportsbook)
(click either chart to enlarge)
I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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