The 2022 NASCAR season continue its march toward the postseason. The Camping World Truck Season gets the next few weeks off, but fortunately we get some road course racing from the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series. The Xfinity Series has run four road courses this season and noted road ringer, AJ Allmendinger, has won four of them. Can he continue that wave of momentum on this style of track or will someone like Ty Gibs, Justin Allgaier, or Noah Gragson find themselves in victory lane? We have just five races left in the Xfinity Series regular season so there are fewer and fewer opportunities available to lock in a playoff spot with a win before the Round of 12 begins in Texas next month. Let’s dig into some NASCAR DFS top picks and strategies for Saturday’s race from Watkins Glen.
With NASCAR’s shift to more road courses on the schedule, Watkins Glen has been a bit of a staple on the schedule in recent years. I wouldn’t say it’s as technical of a track as COTA, but we also don’t see as much variance as we’ve seen at courses like Indianapolis. We’re looking at just 11 turns over a 2.45-mile track. They can definitely pick up faster speeds at this course and in general it produces some fun racing. Keep in mind as the field tends to spread out we do see it become relatively difficult to pass on green flag speed. Over the last few races at Watkins Glen for the Xfinity Series we’ve typically seen about 20-25 green flag passes which pales in comparison to what we’ve seen this year on tracks like COTA (55.4), Portland (39.6), Road America (36.8), and Indianapolis (32.1). Two of those races saw a lot of variance so take from that whatever you wish.
Saturday’s race is scheduled for 82 laps run in 20-20-42 lap segments. Track position and pit strategy once again will play a role for a lot of drivers seeking points to make the playoffs, but the drivers on the outs have a lot of ground to make up in that regard. We’ll have probably 50-55 dominator points available, which is more than what we’ve typically seen for road courses this year, but overall it’s still not a ton. If you can get dominator points in your lineup, by all means target them. But for road courses I will try not to force too many dominator candidates because the name of the game, as always, is position differential and strong finishes. But if you think you can build a lineup paying up for multiple drivers and you think there’s a path to that lineup being optimal then go for it.
Last year’s race saw only five drivers gain double-digit spots in PD: Ty Gibbs (Started P15, Finished 1st), Brandon Jones (Started P21, Finished 6th), Sam Mayer (Started P23, Finished 10th), Preston Pardus (Started P35, Finished 23rd), and Stephen Leicht (Started P40, Finished 28th). 11 drivers did gain at least five spots of PD but only three finished in the top ten (Gibbs, Jones, and Mayer) while five of them finished outside the top 20.
Saturday’s field is pretty loaded so lineup construction could be a little funky. We have four Cup Series drivers in the Xfinity field (Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, William Byron, and Cole Custer) and smaller teams bring in road course specialists for these races as well.
I don’t love previewing the driver pool before practice and qualifying, but we have only a few hours to finalize builds after the starting order is determined. So take these drivers with a grain of salt. There will be additions and fades to make note of in RED after qualifying and I’ll be in the NASCAR DFS Discord channel answering questions up until green flag.
Hendrick Motorsports – Both Kyle Larson ($10,800) and William Byron ($10,100) are in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race at the Glen. They’re being mentioned simply because of the skill level and equipment. Larson ran the Xfinity race at Road America. He started on the pole, collected 12.7 dominator points, and he finished second. Byron also collected himself a runner-up finish at Texas (different track type though). The price tags aren’t too prohibitive for a road course and we’ll see who offers more PD for Saturday’s race. That’ll likely mean they’ll carry more ownership but as far as the equipment and talent goes, there are almost no concerns.
AJ Allmendinger ($10,500) We can pretty much be brief with Allmendinger at this point. He’s in play no matter where he starts because of the win equity and he could lead 20+ laps as well. He won Watkins Glen in the Cup Series way back in 2014 and he finished second in this race for Xfinity in 2018 and 2021 (NASCAR didn’t run here in 2020 and in 2019 he finished second but was disqualified following post-race tech). But he’s won three road races this year and could easily make it a fourth on Saturday. As of Wednesday morning he was a 3-to-1 co-favorite with Kyle Larson to get the win.
Ty Gibbs ($10,200) Gibbs has five wins on the year including a win on a road course earlier in the year (last month at Road America). Gibbs essentially embarrassed the field in this race a year ago after he started P15 and won while leading 43 laps, collecting 21 fastest laps, and boasting a 149.2 driver rating. Gibbs checks the boxes as a driver who has win equity and has shown he can run up front and collect 15+ dominator points.
Ross Chastain ($9,900) Ross is actually cheaper in Xfinity than he is for the Cup Series race. That’s likely due to the equipment, but DGM sets their cars up well for road courses. Hence why I’ll likely get exposure to Alex Labbe and Preston Pardus. Chastain won the Cup Series race at COTA earlier in the year and he finished top five in the Xfinity Series at Indianapolis a couple weeks ago where he made an enemy out of Sheldon Creed. He did finish 17th in the Xfinity Series race at COTA, but he had an average running position of sixth and a 110.8 driver rating. Like most of the drivers in this tier of pricing, he’ll be a fine play but updates will be available after practice and qualifying.
Justin Allgaier ($9,400) I’m not leaving out one of the hottest drivers in the series especially when he’s being served to us at a bit of a discount. Over his last 12 races he’s finished outside the top seven just once and he has three wins in that span. He might go overlooked for road ringers or the Cup Series drivers, but he did finish third at Indy and fifth at Road America. He’s finished top four in four straight races at Watkins Glen with driver ratings over 100 in each of those races.
Josh Berry ($8,800) This is the cheapest Berry has been since Road America when he was $7,900. Honestly, I’m a bit surprised because he does have a pair of top five finishes on road courses this year. He’s almost a similar play to Kevin Harvick in the Cup Series. A driver with a little win equity but a relatively safe floor, who hasn’t qualified particularly well on road courses this year. If he can offer some PD with a solid finish he could score well. The loaded field does limit the upside a bit as he would need some variance to be in the optimal lineup.
Sheldon Creed ($8,600) You may think I’m a bit crazy for this call but hear me out. He’s run much better on road courses than the results indicate. With about 16 laps to go at Indianapolis he was running third before he got into some contact with Justin Allgaier, who made the pass on him. So Creed fell to fourth. Then Creed was spun by Ross Chastain (add another enemy to the list for Chastain) that dropped Creed outside the top 30 and he ultimately finished 23rd. Now think back to Portland in the beginning of June. Remember that dumpster fire of a race in the rain? With 20 laps to go Creed was running seventh before getting spun. Not a big deal, almost every driver was spinning out heading into turn one of that race. But when Creed re-started, he fired off right into another car and took damage on the grill and he failed to finish the race. And that is a shame because he was fast in practice that weekend and had a top five car. Is he maybe making some of this bad luck? Sure. But the weather was awful at Portland and he was still having a solid run. Indianapolis has produced some high-variance racing for both the Cup and Xfnity Series. I’m not willing to write him off solely based off a small sample size of chaotic road courses this year. As mentioned earlier regarding the playoff standings, Creed is one of the drivers on the outside of the playoff picture looking for a very strong performance at Watkins Glen.
Brandon Jones ($8,400) This is subject to change, but Jones has been a viable play on all road courses this year. He started P38 and finished 18th at COTA (45 points), started P14 and finished fifth at Road America (49 points), started P22 and finished 11th at Portland (43 points), and started P36 and finished 15th at Indy (49 points). Now he’ll be an easy upgrade/downgrade following qualifying once we know where he’s starting. But he’s either finished well or offered PD and he’s in JGR equipment. He also won the ARCA race Friday night and got some extra laps in so that has to count for something.
Connor Mosack ($7,800) I have some interest in Mosack given how top-heavy this field is. He’ll be in the 26-car for Sam Hunt Racing. The sample size with Mosack is very small. But for this race, we’ll need to find some leverage spots and I think he could go largely unnoticed based on what he’s done this year on road courses. For the Truck race at Mid-Ohio he finished 34th but he did qualify P11. At Portland, a race with a ton of accidents and nonsense, he started inside the top ten and finished 28th. In terms of qualifying, he’s been great. But he’s had two bad finishes due to high variance in rain and brake failures. AJ Allmendinger won at Portland and even he had some off-track moments that day. This is a top 20 car and we’ve seen a few drivers pilot it to a top ten. Can Mosack do that? I doubt it. But I do think he can steal a top 15.
Sammy Smith ($7,600) It’ll really depend on where he qualifies and how he looks in practice. The field is so loaded that we’re getting a JGR priced in the $7K range so we’re looking at a good discount. Smith has qualified much better than where he’s finished so don’t commit a ton of exposure here. But if he can finally put us in a spot to garner some PD then I like the play here.
Andy Lally ($7,200) Personally I don’t love Lally this week. I have concerns about the equipment but he’s a road course specialist so he could steal a top ten finish. He only has one top 15 finish in three road course races this year so while we’ve seen him finish in the top ten in previous years, that magic hasn’t shown itself in 2022. I may go lighter than the field because there are so many discounted drivers that could be optimal in better equipment. But I’ll include him in the Playbook because he’s specifically brought in for races like this.
Alex Labbe ($7,100) Just a friendly reminder that Labbe is a pretty decent road course driver and DGM tends to set their cars up very well for road courses. Hence why Ross Chastain probably had no problem joining this team for a couple road courses (including this one) in 2022. Labbe had a rear gear issue at this track a year ago but finished top 20 in both 2018 and 2019. But so far in 2022 he’s finished 10th at Portland, 12th at Indianapolis, and 15th at Road America. There’s a pretty decent ceiling here if he finishes well.
Ryan Sieg ($6,600) There are so many solid plays in this range that it actually makes it pretty easy to pay up for multiple studs. Sieg is a playoff caliber driver who hasn’t officially locked in his spot just yet, but we can usually count on PD out of Sieg at road courses. At COTA he started P35 and finished 11th. Started P27 and finished 16th at Portland. Started P27 and finished tenth at Road America. And he started P31 at Indy, but only finished 27th. If he’s in a similar spot on Saturday then he’ll be an easy chalk play at a huge discount. Now remember, there are a ton of good plays in this range and I will be upgrading/downgrading a lot of drivers in this range based on where they start, but Sieg’s road course resume in 2022 checks out.
Anthony Alfredo ($6,000) Very cheap price tag for a driver who could very well put up 35-40 points on DraftKings. He finished 13th at COTA, 31st at Portland (but did qualify on the pole and had an average running position of 17th), 23rd at Road America, and 18th at Indy Road Course. Three top 20 finishes and he’s only $6,000 which seems a little off. Let’s see where he qualifies but he could be a popular choice come Saturday afternoon. As a pivot, you can also consider his teammate, Jeb Burton, for $200 more. But choosing between the two will boil down to starting position.
Patrick Gallagher ($5,500) Not an insanely phenomenal play, but I think there’s value here as a cheaper option. He’s run three races for RSS this year. He started P30 at COTA and finished 22nd. Started P33 at Road America and finished 19th. Started P35 at Indy and finished 28th. He’s qualified poorly and found ways to move up at each race. I’d like to see a finish similar to what he did at COTA and Road America, but the equipment isn’t terrible and he’ll be a decent value option if he qualifies poorly.
Core drivers will be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord Channel around 2:00pm ET.
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Don't miss this week's NASCAR DFS Podcast as our three-time FSWA NASCAR Writer of the year, Matt Selz, and Dan Malin preview Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series road race from Watkins Glen!
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